By Liu Gang
劉剛
The current Japanese cabinet dominated by the new generation of politicians is faced with major decisions and risks under the manipulation of the US "Indo-Pacific Strategy". The deviated and self-locked diplomatic policies and moves of the Kishida administration have invited huge political and security risks, posing a great threat to the future development of Japan as well as the stability and well-being of its people.
日本新生代政治家主導的現內閣，在美國“印太戰略”的擺布下，面臨重大選擇與風險。岸田政府政策外交持續走偏，這種作繭自縛的舉動引發巨大政治風險和安全隱患，對日本國家未來的發展及國民的安定幸福造成極大威脅。
First, Japan's attempt to meddle in the Taiwan Strait poses political and security risks. The frequent inappropriate remarks related to the Taiwan question made by the Japanese politicians reflect the anxiety and unease of certain groups in this country, who intend to achieve a breakthrough in the domestic and foreign policies and transform the long-term economic and social stagnation in the nation by interfering in the affairs of the Taiwan Strait.
首先，日本欲插手臺海，這是政治和安全上的冒險。日本政界頻繁出現本不該有的涉臺言論，表現出日本一些人內心的焦慮和不安，意圖通過利用插手臺海局勢實現內外政策的突破和對日本經濟社會長期陷入滯脹局面的改變。
Japan's interference in the Taiwan Strait aims at ensuring the implementation of the Security Treaty between the United States and Japan, so as to obtain protection from the US and fulfill its long-cherished wish of becoming a political and military powerhouse by following the wills and ideological values of Uncle Sam.
日本插手臺海局勢，意欲借此確保日美安全保障的落實，其實質是追隨美國及其意識形態價值觀，以獲取美國的保護，并成就日本變為政治軍事大國的夙愿。
From the objective aspect, Japan is located at the northern end of the first island chain in the Western Pacific Ocean, which runs from north to south and borders the continent of China, forming an economic and energy channel for Japan. The stability and prosperity of maritime traffic in East Asia and the West Pacific are certainly of great significance to the production and living of the Japanese people. However, the reckless provocation of the island separatist forces under the instigation of Japan and the US has triggered a series of unstable factors.
客觀來看，日本地處西太平洋第一島鏈北端，第一島鏈從北向南，依傍中國大陸，形成日本經濟及能源通道。東亞西太海域交通的安定和繁榮，對日本及國民的生產生活的確有著重要意義。然而目前日美暗中鼓動下的島內分裂勢力的妄動激發，卻引發了一系列的不安定狀態。
The Taiwan question is China's internal affair, and the one-China principle is the political foundation of China-Japan relations. The experience of the past few decades shows that although the two countries have different ideologies, common development and prosperity can be achieved as long as both uphold the principle of peaceful co-existence and win-win cooperation. However, certain Japanese politicians failed to view the modernization and rise of China objectively and rationally. The author believes that the root cause lies in the collective consciousness of miscalculating the international situation in the Japanese political circles.
臺灣問題是中國的內政，一個中國原則是中日交往的政治基礎，從過去幾十年的經驗看，雖然中日意識形態不同，但只要兩國和平相處、互利共贏，是能夠實現共同發展和繁榮的。但日本政界卻有人無法客觀理性看待中國的現代崛起，筆者認為，其根源在于日本政界出現了誤判國際形勢的群體意識。
Second, Japan's policy impulse to assist the US to intervene in the Taiwan Strait is pushing Okinawa and the Southwest Islands into war. Realistically, some Japanese politicians blindly obsessed with opportunism adopt a policy of kidnapping the people, which cannot effectively protect its economic and energy arteries, but might lead the surrounding regions, especially the so-called Southwest Islands, to the abyss of war. Did the Japanese politicians ever think about the huge price Japan would have to pay once the US troops left?
其次，日本幫助美國插手臺海的政策沖動，正把沖繩和西南諸島推向戰爭火坑。從現實來看，日本一些政客盲目迷信機會主義，在政策上綁架國民，既不能有效保護其經濟能源動脈，還可能將周邊地域尤其是所謂西南諸島帶入戰爭軌道。一旦美軍一走了之，日本是否想過自己要付出的巨大代價？
Some Japanese politicians fabricate the "China threat theory" from time to time, employing the so-called "national interests" to manipulate the peace-loving people in the country and spreading the rhetoric that "China is going to rob the Japanese and change their lives", very similar to the reproduced version of right-wing forces' street slogans. In the past two years, the Japanese government has aggressively built military facilities and missile bases on some islands near Taiwan, making the local people worry that their residences might be transformed into the frontline of military conflicts. In fact, many people in the Southwest Islands including Okinawans, have participated in protests to express their strong objection to further militarizing the islands.
日本政界一些人不時制造“中國威脅論”，用所謂“國家利益”綁架國民愛好和平反對戰爭的愿望，散布“中國就要來搶日本人東西，改變日本人生活”的言論，這很像極右翼在街頭打出標語的翻版。近兩年日本政府在靠近臺灣島的一些島嶼上大肆修建軍事設施和導彈基地，讓島上的民眾提心吊膽，擔心自己生活居住的地方成為軍事沖突的第一線。事實上，許多西南諸島民眾，包括沖繩民眾都參與過抗議示威，他們不希望將這些島嶼進一步軍事化。
The Chinese side kindly reminded the Japanese party to put itself in the Chinese shoes in a recent bilateral dialogue: How do the Japanese feel should China put forward an issue around the status of Ryukyu (or should China support the independence of Okinawa or Ryukyu)? Some Japanese senators immediately jumped up and said that was impossible. Then the Japanese side should think about whether it is possible in terms of China's Taiwan.
最近，有中方人員在一場中日對話活動中善意提醒日方換位思考：若中國提出琉球地位問題（或中國支持琉球沖繩獨立）日方有何感想？當時有日方議員立即跳起來說絕不可能。那么，日方應當想一想，臺灣就有可能嗎？
Third, the cost of war is unbearable from the respective of the Japanese civilians. Okinawa, Hiroshima and many other cities have paid a heavy price for the wars. Horribly suffering from the pain of war, the older generation of Japanese people concern much on the country back to war, and certainly do not support the new generation of politicians to embark on the dangerous road of making the country a military powerhouse again in the excuse of "trouble in the Taiwan Strait". A succession of spontaneous civilian protests has been staged in this country recently.
再次，從日本民眾的角度看，戰爭的代價不堪回首。沖繩、廣島等不少城市都因為戰爭付出了慘重代價。飽受戰爭痛苦的老一輩日本國民，非常憂患國家重走戰爭老路，當然也不支持日本新生代政治家借口“臺海有事”再次踏上意欲成為軍事大國的危途。近期已不斷有日本國民自發展開抗議行動。
However, due to the defects of the electoral political system, it is difficult for the Japanese people to coordinate their opinions and form effective synergy to prevent the dangerous moves of the conservative forces in the country. The arduous normalization course of China-Japanese diplomatic relations demonstrates that some Japanese politicians have been attempting to maintain the situation of "neither unification nor independence" across the Taiwan Strait. The recent fact that Tokyo inflamed the situation in the Taiwan Strait and vigorously propelled the "Asian Pacific version of NATO" is tantamount to adding fuel to the fire, which is very dangerous.
但是，由于選舉政治制度的缺陷，日本民眾難以統籌意見形成有效合力，阻止日本保守勢力的危險動向。從中日邦交正?；钠D難歷程可以看出，日本一些政客一直在著力謀求維持臺?！安唤y”“不獨”局面。近期日本政府拱火臺海局勢，積極推動“北約亞太化”，無異于火上澆油，極為冒險。
Blindly following the US to intervene in Taiwan affairs will inevitably bring about huge political costs and sacrifice the long-term interests of the Japanese people. Japanese politicians need to bear in mind the big picture of China-Japan relations in the new era and re-examine the wrong calculations and deflected policies.
盲目追隨美國插手臺海事務，必將伴隨巨大的政治成本，犧牲日本國民的長期利益。日本政界需要透視中日關系的世紀大局，而那些打錯了算盤的日本政客，則需要重新審視已經走偏的決策方向。
(The author is an emeritus professor at Okinawa University)
（作者是沖繩大學名譽教授）
Editor's note: Originally published on huanqiu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
